A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
