Just 60 days in the past when the young forward was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as Unai Emery scolded him for missing a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was if his displays were a symptom or the source for the team's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response was much more joyous. As the England international drilled in his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win and having failed to win any of their first six games, find themselves only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
This is an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. History, the traditional standing of this institution, indicates otherwise. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant this season, while the wins have accumulated.
As per statistical analysis, twice all season has the team had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club which has strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem strangely fragile – but currently the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with rivals and then rely on their talisman to save the day with two precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened when facing the Red Devils.
The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival they must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling his shots into the net's top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet find their top level.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the player he was in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As the match-winner faced the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
